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Maps and Graphs Illustrating the Crisis in the Ukraine

 

Russia Invades Ukraine:  The Footprint of War

map showing invasion of the ukraine by russia, oil and gas pipelines and oil and gas fields
Please contact us at insight@energy-cg.com for a georeferenced version of this map.
For Larger, Higher Resolution View, Click Image


The footprint of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine cuts across all but one of the major natural gas pipelines transiting the Ukraine to take gas from Russia to Europe.  The infrastructure, such as compressor stations, that support these lines, as well as the lines themselves, are easily damaged, so given the proximity of combat, a major disruption of service is quite possible.  Collectively, these pipelines - the Soyuz, Progress, and the part of the Northern Lights pipeline that transits the Ukraine - handle about 1/3 of the gas shipped by Russia each year to Europe.  Given this importance to European, and, therefore, world energy markets, we are tracking where the fighting is relative to these lines.  As presented in the map above, the military situation has evolved such that it appears that the risk to the Soyuz amd Progress lines has been reduced after Russian forces were pushed out of the northern Ukraine. Though still at risk from missile or air strikes, the threat of combat directly on or adjacent to the lines in and around the Kyiv and Sumy areas appears to be low.  Now, the greatest threat of combat damage appears to have shifted to the eastern Ukrainian portion of the Soyuz line, which carries gas from Orenburg/West Siberian fields.  That said, it is being reported that the heaviest fighting between Ukrainian/Russian forces is to the southwest of the line, so is not coincident with the line, reducing the risk of combat related damage.

The fighting in the Donets/Luhansk region is set to cut off the Ukraine from domestic sources of oil, natural gas, and coal.  And with the port of Odessa under threat, the importation of coal via waterbourne trade is problematic, making the Ukraine dependent for power upon European supplied coal/electricity, Ukrainian nuclear power plants (the largest of which is now Russian controlled), and Russian gas. Note: not only does the map above show that many existing oil and gas fields are in play in the eastern Ukraine, but the most prospective shale gas area in the region (the orangish area in the bite between Donsk and Karkiv) is literally under the very ground where the defining battles of the war are being fought.














Ukraine Related Energy News

Oil and Gas Markets: US oil industry appears on the verge of significantly ramping up activity in response to higher oil and gas prices.  Chevron is reportedly on track to boost output from the USA's largest oil producting region, the Permian Basin, by 15% in 2022.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: One of the largest power utility companies in Germany, and one of its largest importers of Russian gas, is moving to comply with the payment scheme specified by Russia to keep receiving natural gas.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Great Britain now believes it can wean itself off Russian gas sooner than recently projected.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: The Guardian estimates that Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports have doubled since it invaded the Ukraine.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Italy is considering nationalizing Lukoil's ISAB refinery, Italy's largest, as punishment for Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Per this reports, Europeans are already using roubles to pay for Russia for natural gas.  More expected as gas shutoffs to Poland and Bulgaria demonstrate Russian intent.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Germany's Economy Minister is now suggesting that a full ban on importing Russian oil is possible within a matter of days.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: It is now being reported that Russia will halt natural gas exports to Poland on Wednesday (27th) unless payment is forthcoming in rubles.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Europe is still working to figure out the optimal near term structure of sanctions that maximize impact on Russia, while impacting the impact on users in Europe.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Europe has set a target of the end of 2027 to end its import dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Oil and Gas Markets: Biden administration continues to throttle the domestic US oil and gas industry by restricting access to highly prospective acreage, in this case on Alaska's North Slope.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Reports are emerging that the Russians are signaling that they intend to take control of all of the southern Ukraine along the Black Sea coast. This puts Odessa and perhaps Moldova at risk, and suggest a longer, wider war with all that implies for global energy markets.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell recently stated, "It will be very hard [to reach consent on embargoing Russian oil deliveries or raising tariffs], because some member states have already announced they would veto any collective decision"

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Treasury Secretary Yellin says, "we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports."  She is essentially arguing that such a ban may cause more harm than good.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports:Ukrainian officials are urging Germain officials to redirect Russian gas exports from Nordstream 1 to the pipelines that traverse the Ukraine (see map to the left) in order to boost transit fees paid to the Ukraine.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports:Emerging reports are suggesting that Russian oil production is down about 10% from prewar levels, with more declines likely.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Europe is negotiating with large oil exporting countries to line up alternative sources of oil so it can embargo oil imports from Russia at an acceptable cost to its economies.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Rosneft offers large 38 mmbo tender for Urals blend for May/June delivery.

 

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Sanctions have severly disrupted Russian supply of agricultural nutrients. This will potentially result in much lower crop yields globally, including for rice, production of which may be down by as much as 10%.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Russian oil exports are down 25% in the week of April 15.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Business and Union leaders in Germany oppose immediately discontinuing imports of Russian oil and gas.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: The Russian Deputy Prime Minister indicates several countries have committed to paying for natural gas with roubles.

Oil and Gas Markets: US Interior department said it planned to lease as much as 145,000 acres of land for oil and gas development in the western US.  This relatively small effort represents the first sale of oil and gas leases since Biden took office, and breaks a core campaign pledge that Biden made when he told voters in February 2020 in New Hampshire, "And by the way, no more drilling on federal lands, period.  Period, period, period."

Oil and Gas Markets: Per the latest BHI activity report, US rig count increased by 4 rigs, with the number of rigs drilling horizontal wells up by 5 (offset by 1 less rig drilling in inland waters) :
  US Drilling Activity Map:  Where the rigs are drilling.
  Number of US rigs drilling as of latest report.
  US oil and gas drilling activity summary.

Oil and Gas Markets: Large Chinese companies are starting to withdraw from western markets for fear of being sanctioned by western governments and banking systems.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: Willingness of buyers in India to purchase heavily discounted Russian crude oil may undermine much of the sting of a European oil embargo on Russia.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: The EU is considering putting in place a full oil embargo against Russia starting in late April or early May.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: The BBC is quoting a former Russian economic advisor as saying that a full embargo of Russian oil and gas would quickly end the Ukrainian war.

Oil and Gas Markets: EIA today reported higher US oil inventories flat US oil production, and reduced implied demand.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: According to Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov Russia is ready to make a deal for its oil at any price, as long as the buyer is a friendly country.

Russian Oil and Gas Exports: OPEC tells Europeans that it cannot replace Russian oil.

Oil and Gas Markets: OPEC continues to underperform.  It increased projection by only 57 mbopd in March, which was well below a planned increase of approx. 200 mbopd.

Ukraine Oil and Gas: US warns India against importing more Russian oil and gas.

Oil and Gas Markets: Concerns over China lockdowns destroying oil demand are outweighing concerns over Russian oil supply shortfalls and leading to lower prices.

Ukraine Oil and Gas: India and China continue to purchase Russian crude oil, providing an important source of hard currency.

Oil and Gas Markets: Per the latest BHI activity report, US rig count jumped by 16 rigs, with the number of rigs drilling horizontal wells up by 18 (offset by 2 fewer offshore rigs) :
  US Drilling Activity Map:  Where the rigs are drilling.
  Number of US rigs drilling as of latest report.
  US oil and gas drilling activity summary.

Oil and Gas Markets: According to Nigeria's state minister for petroleum resources, OPEC is out of spare capacity.

Ukraine Oil and Gas: Russian forces appear to be systematically destroying Ukrainian oil, diesel, and gasoline production and storage installations with the goal of hindering the Ukrainian war effort.

For earlier Ukraine related energy news go here.

US Distillate Inventory Levels Compared with 5 Year History
US Distillate Inventory Levels Compared with 5 Year History
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US Oil Product Retail Prices:  Gasoline and Diesel
Oil Product Retail Prices:  Gasoline and Diesel
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Recent US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
Recent US natural gas prices- Henry Hub
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Ukraine Oil Production
Ukraine Oil Production
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Russian Crude Oil, Condensate, NGL's, and Biofuels Production
Russian Crude Oil, Condensate, NGL's, and Biofuels Production
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Brent Oil Price and the Invasion of the Ukraine
Brent Oil Price and the Invasion of the Ukraine
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Russian Oil Production, Exports and Reserves Russian Oil Production, Exports and Reserves
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Russian Natural Gas Production, Exports and Reserves
Russian Natural Gas Production, Exports and Reserves
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Click here to go to a multidimensional map of the Crisis in the Ukraine

This is an interactive map, so we've found it helpful to use "Layers" to allow us to focus on what it is we want to study.  For example, if one wants to see the map unhindered with the names of the cities, simply go to Layers  in the upper right hand corner and click on the tirangle; go to Ukraine_UrbanAreas_BigLables, click on the triangle; and then uncheck visible.  The city names will then no longer be shown.

Online 3D Map Controls: to rotate, press left mouse button and move the mouse, to zoom in/out, press down on the mouse wheel and move the mouse, and to roam, press down on the right mouse button and move the mouse.
Go here to visit prior status maps starting February 27, 2022  

Russia has been strategically developing its natural gas resources to isolate Ukraine and to make it more difficult from an economic perspective for the Unitied States and its allies to assist.
Natural Gas Web: Russia has been strategically developing its gas resources to isolate Ukraine and to make it more difficult from an economic perspective for the Unitied States and its allies to assist.
Click on the image for full size version.
Though many focus on Nordstream I and II as key to the effort to economically isolate the Ukraine, it's actually of a piece with Russia's LNG strategy (Arctic and Sakhalin), and the buildout of the southern Turkstream and Blue Stream export lines.
Nord Stream and Turkstream Arctic LNG, Sakhalin LNG, natural gas
Click on the image for full size version.
   
Russian Crude Oil Production In Comparison to Production of USA, Canada, OPEC, and Rest of World
Russian Crude Oil Production In Comparison to Production of USA, Canada, OPEC, and Rest of World
Click on the image for full size version.
 


The Ukraine conflict is centered on the differences between the eurocentric area in western Ukraine, and the Russian centric area in the eastern Ukraine. These differences were dramatically illustrated when the Russian friendly prime minister was deposed by pro-European protestors in early 2014. Concerns over this change in political leadership led Russia to annex the Crimea, and to support a rebellion by the eastern Ukraine provinces that have majority pro-Russian populations.


Russia Accidentally Reveals Its Massive Ukraine Body Count
 
Ukraine Civil War: Pre-Crisis Base Map


ukraine base map
Click on the image for full size version.
Ukraine Civil War:  Approximate Route of Major Pipelines Transiting Russian Natural Gas From Western Siberia to Europe

ukraine: russian natural gas pipelines
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Ukraine Civil War:  Pre-Conflict Map Showing The Primary Oil and Gas Producing Areas in the Ukraines. 
Also shown are the nascent shale development blocks.  The two shale blocks are Yuzovsky (Shell) and Olesska (Chevron)
ukraine: oil and gas fields map, olesska, yuzovsky shale blocks
Click on the image for full size version.
The map to the left illustrates the Ukraine oil and gas situation before Russian annexation of the Crimea.  We created this map to provide perspective on where Ukrainian oil and gas regions are in relation to the rest of the Ukraine.  The primary onshore oil and gas productive regions are the Dneiper-Donetsk  and Pre-Carpathian Basins.  The primary offshore area, and the one most prospective for new, large conventional oil and gas reserves, is the Black Sea-Crimea Basin.  Also presented on the map are the two large shale gas concessions previously awarded by the Ukrainian government:  Olesska awarded to Chevron, and Yuzovsky awarded to Shell.


   

The Ukraine is a net importer of both oil and gas.  Per the BP statistical survey, precrisis Ukraine produced about 50 MBOPD of oil and consumed about 290 MBOPD, making it a net importer of approx. 240 MBOPD.  It imported most of this oil from Russia.  Again, per the BP statistical survey, the precrisis Ukraine produced about 1.8 BCFD of natural gas, and consumed between 5-6 BCFD, making it a net importer of between 3.2 - 4.2 BCFD.  Almost all of this imported gas was sourced from Russia. The importance of the gas volumes for both residential and industrial use is the primary reason the Ukrainian government was aggressively seeking to expand domestic production through deepwater exploration and shale gas development.

Ukraine Civil War:  Ukranian Domestic Natural Gas Production and Consumption
Ukraine: Natural Gas production/consumption
Ukraine Civil War:  Ukrainian Domestic Oil Production and Consumption
Ukraine: Oil Production/Consumption

The crisis in the Ukraine is obviously a humanitarian disaster, but it also threatens the Ukrainian government strategy of making the country less dependent upon Russia for its energy needs.  As the below map illustrates,  the annexation of the Crimea essentially transfered the most promising conventional (offshore) oil and gas region from the Ukraine to Russia, and the separatist movement in the eastern Ukraine threatens the Yuzovsky shale gas license.  Indeed,Shell citing the violence in eastern Ukrain,  has already suspended operations in the Yuzovsky license area.

Ukraine Civil War: Pre-Crisis Map of Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
Ukraine Map: Black Sea pre-crisis Exclusive economic zones (Ukraine, Russia,  Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria)
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Ukraine Civil War:  Pre-conflict Ukraine Black Sea Oil and Gas Situation
Ukraine Map: pre-crisis Black Sea oil and gas concessions, Crimea Basin
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Ukraine Civil War:  More Than Just Land
Potentially Reshaped Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) Post Crimea Annexation
Ukraine Map: Black Sea oil and gas concessions after Crimea Annexation
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By annexing Crimea, Russia not only gains Crimea's land area, but adds large tracts of promising offshore oil and gas acreage  via Crimea's offshore rights.  Assuming the Crimea annexation holds up over time, Russia's Black Sea Exclusive Economic Zone would at least double, and encompass some of the most prospective oil and gas areas in the Black Sea, i.e. the deep water regions to the south of Crimea.  These areas are on trend with the multi-TCF Domino discovery in Romanian waters to the west.

Europe beyond the Ukraine is also exposed to the crisis.  The primary vulnerability is the potential for disruptions to Russian gas flows.  Europe gets about 35% of its gas from Russia, with about 50% of that transiting the Ukraine.  The  degree of dependncy varies depending on the distance from Russia, As illustrated by the map below, the countries, several eastern European countries depend upon Russian gas for over 50% of energy needs.

Sources of Imported Natural Gas For Europe
Ukraine Crisis:  Graph showing european dependence upone Russia for gas
Sources of Natural Gas By Country
Ukraine Crisis: map showing source of natural gas by country

Pre-Crisis Ukraine
Russian Aspirations for Ukrainian Territory
Ukraine: Novorissiya, Russian Natural Gas Pipelines

Click on the figures for a higher resolution version of the images.

Go to The Energy Consulting Group home page for more oil and gas related information.


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